Back in 2017 one of our executive consultants gave a presentation at a major supply chain conference about the ticking ‘time-bomb’ of driver shortages and availability in the UK transport sector. Forward-wind 4 years from that point to September 2021, and the UK was hit by massive fuel shortages, leading to petrol stations running out of fuel. This in turn led to queues running in some cases miles down the road, and to members of the public actually following fuel tankers (and sometimes not fuel tankers) around the country to see where they ultimately delivered their fuel.
What is the link between these two things? It is the fact that the fuel shortage crisis of 2021 was caused due to a severe lack of LGV truck drivers in the UK. The panic was actually caused by a throwaway comment by an executive of major fuel company in a meeting who simply happened to state that they were concerned that they may not have enough drivers to deliver to their forecourts during the upcoming Christmas peak that year.
The fact that the entire panic need not have happened is neither here nor there. It was a symptom of the fact that at that point there were simply not enough LGV drivers in the UK to support demand. Three primary factors came together at the same point: The ageing population of the UK based drivers fleet (average age as of 2019, 59); a significant reduction in availability of EU driver resource following the UK’s exit from the European Union on the 31st of January 2020; The mass removal of the ability of continental European drivers to carry cabotage loads within the UK. These together meant that the UK was in the perfect storm of transport availability.
Thankfully, common sense prevailed in 2021 and eventually the fuel shortages (that were never actually shortages of fuel) subsided and things returned to normal. What did not return to normal was the attitude of the UK government towards driver availability. It is fair to say that the government did and still does put considerable effort into supporting the recruitment and training of new driver resources into the UK transport sector. This is broadly welcome by all involved in the industry.
What was not welcomed by transport specialists was the government’s temporary relaxation of driver hours regulations. Thankfully those temporary relaxations were short lived, as driver hours regulations had built up over a number of decades to improve safety for both LGV drivers and the public alike.
The government has continued to support driver populations, and it is welcome that the limitations on LGV driver visas following Brexit have been significantly relaxed. This has helped keep the wheels of UK logistics moving even if transport costs have escalated to a point never previously seen, and are also never likely to return to pre 2021 levels.
So where are we now? Overall, it may at first glance seem that the UK driver population is rebounding. As of March 2023 there are approximately 295,000 LGV Drivers in the UK, the highest amount since December 2020 (300,000). The increase has largely been due to the success of allowing EU nationals to return to the UK as drivers. However, the UK national population of drivers has actually decreased by over 5,000 drivers in that same period.
Of more concern, is the fact that the UK driver population continues to grow older. In 2015, drivers aged 56 and above accounted for approximately 24% of the overall driver population. As of March 2023, this is now over 34%. The proportion of drivers aged 66 or more has doubled over the same period, whilst the total number of drivers under 35 has remained roughly the same.
Even more concerning is the fact that, based on the latest statistics, the numbers of younger people entering the industry is dwindling. Those under the age of 26 now make up less than 2% of the overall driver population, with only 5,000 drivers in that age bracket, down by over half since a peak of 11,000 in 2020, and at a population at its lowest since 2015.
So, in answer to our primary question, are we over the hill of driver availability? In its most simple terms, clearly we are not. The government needs to redouble its efforts to attract new drivers into the industry, and work with industry bodies to continually improve services available for drivers. It must also focus on protecting safety of both drivers and other road users by maintaining hard won driver hours protections. Clearly it would also be beneficial to extend the reach and availability of overseas driver resource is to support the UK logistics industry.
If the transport sector of the UK cannot grow, then this will put a service, cost and inflationary pressure on all of the UK economy and continue to add to the pressures everyone sees within UK supply chains.
All data referred to in this article are sourced from the Office of National Statistics, 2023.
