In April 2014 there were 264,000 Large Goods Vehicles (LGV) UK drivers employed in this sector, with an additional 25,000 employed from outside the UK. In April 2023 however, the number of UK LGV drivers had dropped to 228,000 – a drop of 36,000 – and the number from outside the UK had risen to 38,000. Overall this is a reduction of 23,000 – not allowing for any increase at all in demand for drivers. (ONS Drivers) At this sector’s peak, in 2016: 321,000 drivers were employed, so this number together with estimates of economic growth, means that leading industry figures currently estimate the shortfall at a staggering 66,000 drivers (geo2.com). This shortfall rises to 100,000 according to the Road Haulage Association survey cited in a BBC article (How serious is the shortage of lorry drivers? – BBC News) .Much of the research (other than the faithful annual reporting of the UK Office for national statistics) appeared to have been conducted in 2021-2022 and nothing much has been written since, but as of 2021 the situation appeared to be dire.
A combination of Brexit visa changes and changes in processing of goods checks at import/export points; the Covid-19 pandemic; changes in UK tax law IR35 preventing regular drivers from declaring themselves as “off payroll” owner/drivers instead of being processed as PAYE employees, and as at that time, the performance of the GBP in global currency markets had been on a strong declining trend. Since then, at least the pound has had a resurgence against the US dollar but many of the other issues remain meaning these factors put together made the UK an incredibly unappealing place to come and work for any foreign drivers.
Turning to our domestic driver pool: the ONS information tells an interesting story. Comparing the age categories (16-25; 26-35; etc up to 66+) from 2014 to 2024, we can see that the industry is no better than it ever was at attracting the youngest cohort – the overall estimate has fallen from 7,000 to 4,000 (although that’s not included in the table below) over the past decade. But assuming that those who started in the industry have continued, one can expect a certain amount of trackable numbers as the 16-25 cohort in 2014 would now be the 26-35 cohort in 2024. (Drivers ages).
Looking at the shift in those numbers, it is clear that the career becomes significantly more appealing after the age of 25 because the numbers increased to 35,000 (rounded down) in that second cohort from the rather meagre 7,000 that it was in 2014, just over 5 times higher. However with each subsequent cohort, the growth reduces until by the final age group – retirement to end of life – it has dwindled to a mere quarter who have stayed/survived within the industry.
There is an anecdotal feeling among drivers in general that the UK roads are in poorer repair, and generally busier than they used to be, which might mean that the infrastructure itself is putting off drivers from continuing with the career – and to some extent, the ONS’ findings on the “average speed on the strategic road network” supports this, showing it dropped from 59.6mph in April 2015, to 57.1mph in March 2024. That does not seem like a huge drop, at first, but over the 12.1 billion (i.e. thousand million) miles driven by GB registered LGVs operating in the UK in 2022 (Gov.uk Miles), that would equate to a staggering additional 8.9 million hours on the road over the course of a year. Given that UK drivers hours regulations are a maximum of 90 hours driving over two consecutive weeks, (GOV.UK drivers’ guidance) and employing a rough calculation that this equates to 26 weeks x 90 hours = 2,340 hours annually maxed out, this is the full time equivalent of 3,800 additional drivers all because the road network has slowed down on average by 2.5mph. This is of course not taking into account any localised infrastructure issues, holiday or sickness…
So fewer people are entering the profession; the road networks are contributing to an increased demand for drivers hours; and economic migration is either less appealing or harder to achieve, in the UK. This is by no means the end of the story though.
Returning to the BBC’s Reality Check, nearly 30% of participants in the survey stated it took longer than 8 weeks to fill the last HGV vacancy, so the pool of new [to a company] drivers is clearly very shallow and the competition fierce – something to return to later.
But as if the hunt for new drivers isn’t enough of a headache, an alarming headline in the industry journal Fleet news article published 27th March, 2023, stated that a record number of Driver CPCs were set to expire in 2024. The D CPC is a professional qualification that all drivers of large goods vehicles (>3.5T) must hold, which has a duration of 5 years, and part of maintaining/renewing this qualification is a minimum requirement for Continual Personal Development issued by the Drivers and Vehicles Standards Authority (DVSA) to carry out 35 hours of training over the five years duration of the CPC, or 7 hours per year.
Like many things, this training became extremely difficult to carry out during the pandemic, and according to the article in Fleet News there was a deficit of 17 million hours of this training outstanding in 2023, for the drivers whose CPCs were issued in 2019. That’s a lot of time to free up, and of course, whilst the drivers are training they cannot be driving.
This last observation has led to a common criticism in the industry, outlined in a podcast in which it was observed that many companies are reluctant to allow the drivers to train in their working hours so expect them to train in their own time (https://thedriverhirepodcast.co.uk/) Some of this may well be driven by the subcontractor issue – if a driver is employed as an owner/driver rather than PAYE then paying for and scheduling training has to remain the responsibility of the driver themselves to ensure they are operating legally. If, however, the reluctance on behalf of the company is simply because they do not want to lose the driver on a working schedule, so hope that the driver will do it as overtime (perhaps during paid holiday?), then it surely it isn’t fair to demand an employee carry out essential work in their own time? The validity of an Operators’ licence is incumbent upon the drivers and equipment it covers being fully fit to serve as per regulations which includes this training. Ergo, it should be offered within contracted working hours.
Returning briefly to the competition within the industry: as with all markets, demand and supply dictate prices and a shortage of qualified Heavy Goods Vehicle drivers means that the asking price has gone up, not just to recruit new drivers but simply to retain the ones that are already fully utilised.
Add this to the raft of increasing costs already burdening fleet operators such as rising overheads, wages and soaring interest rates, and the outlook is fairly grim for all transport companies. According to an article in Motor Transport, 463 British Haulage companies went bust in 2023, more than double the number than in 2021. The margin in this sector is traditionally very low – but given how essential it is to the UK and indeed global economies, the UK LGV Driver crisis that was first highlighted in 2017 is by no means any closer to being solved, and as road networks in the UK slow down even further, and demand for haulage increases, the need for transport and logistics optimisation becomes ever more necessary.
ABOUT THE AUTOR: Kate Harrison
Kate is ASCALi’s Lead Data Analyst and Researcher. She has worked in the supply chain industry for over 15 years helping a range of businesses find innovative ways to optimise their supply chain operations. Kate brings a real passion for the detail, helping create the connections demonstrable in data and process to assist the development root causes to client challenges.
About ASCALi:
ASCALi is a dedicated team of experienced, innovative and pragmatic supply chain professionals. Our team provides supply chain consultancy services across a range of businesses and sectors from the smallest SMEs and start-up businesses through to major global brands. Our team have been delivering exceptional consultancy designs, implementations and optimisations since 2002. Please reach out to ASCALi today to talk to us about how we can help you accelerate your supply chain
